State Laojiao (000568) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Guojiao 1573’s performance in meeting the target of repayment is in line with expectations
Event: Luzhou Laojiao released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 114 in Q1-Q3 2019.
74 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.
9%; realized net profit attributable to parent company 37.
950,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.
Among them, the operating income in 2019Q3 was 34.
6.4 billion, an increase of 21 in ten years.
86%; realized net profit attributable to parent company10.
460,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
Guojiao’s 1573 receipts were benign and revenue growth was steady: in Q3 2019, the company’s revenue increased by 21 years.
86%, although slightly slower than in Q2 2019, it still maintained a steady growth rate of more than 20%.
In terms of product structure, high-end liquor represented by Guojiao 1573 is the most important driving factor for revenue growth. The sales volume of Guojiao 1573 in the first three quarters has successfully completed the initial 10 billion target set. It is estimated that the third quarter of 2019The single-quarter revenue growth rate has accelerated compared with the first half of the year. In the mid-range wine category, as the old special song is in the 武汉桑拿洗浴会所 tenth generation of the new version of the product replacement stage, the third quarter is mainly to control the price, and the overall mid-range wine is expected toRevenue growth was slower than in the first half.
At the end of the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s accounts received in advance were 15.
92 ppm, an increase of 1 each year and month-on-month.
800 million and 200 million, net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was 33.
4.5 billion, a substantial increase of 47.
The increase in the price of main products increased the level of gross profit margin, and the profitability continued to improve: the company’s deducted non-net interest rate in 2019Q3 was 30.
73%, an increase of nearly 3 a year.
Mainly due to: 1) The main products such as Guojiao 1573 continued to maintain their prices, pushing the gross profit margin to rise steadily, and the gross profit margin level in the third quarter of 2019 was 84.
23%, an increase of 2 a year.
76pcts; 2) Selling expenses of 2019Q330.
78%, a decrease of 0 per year.
58pcts. Since this year, the company has gradually collected promotional costs such as terminal display, and more investment in brand building and terminal consumer cultivation. The cost increase is more precise and the overall delivery speed is controllable.
Guojiao 1573 continues its price increase strategy, and looks forward to the opening of the Spring Festival. This week, Guojiao Specialty Company issued a price increase notice. The 52-degree Guojiao 1573 classic package unplanned price increase is 20 yuan / bottle. From November 10, 52 degreesThe initial internal price of Guojiao 1573 Classic Packing Plan is increased by 20 yuan / bottle.
The price of Guojiao 1573 continued to increase, which is in line with the company’s brand revival strategy, and can speed up the dealer’s payment recovery during the Spring Festival peak payment cycle opened in the fourth quarter.
After the mid-autumn season, the price of the mixture of Guojiao 1573 is stable at about 780 yuan, and the dealers’ inventory is benign, which can be a good foundation for the Spring Festival.
Earnings forecast and estimation: The company’s performance is in line with expectations, maintaining the EPS forecast for 2019-21 to 3 respectively.
97 yuan, an increase of 34 each year.
6% / 26.
34% / 22.
The current PE corresponding to 2019-21 is 27x / 21x / 17x respectively, maintaining the “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: economic fluctuations affect demand for high-end liquor; food safety incidents, etc.